9M 2024 recap

VHM and VRE reported 9M 2024 earnings broadly in line with our expectations as VHM/VRE’s 9M 2024 NPAT-MI results complete 66%/72% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. Additionally, VIC’s 9M 2024 EBIT loss from the industrial segment and financial expenses were higher than our previous expectations, partly offset by the better 9M 2024 EBIT of the leasing and hospitality segments. Please see more details of the 9M 2024 results in our Earnings Flash notes for VIC, VHM, and VRE.

Key changes in forecasts

We lower our 2025F projections for VHM's presales and earnings largely due to VEFAC’s (UPCoM: VEF, 83.3% directly owned by VIC) recent announcement regarding its plan to transfer the Co Loa project (see Appendix 3), although we maintain our expectation for an improvement in Vietnam’s housing market transactions in Q4 2024 and 2025 (see our October 25 Sector Flash), which positions VHM to benefit from the recovery. For VRE, we maintain our projection for retail leasing profit growth in 2025F but slightly decrease our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast due to lower property sales recognition. We raise our earnings forecasts for VIC in 2025-26F, supported by VEF’s expected divestment income from Co Loa and a higher projection for the Chairman’s grants, offsetting higher projected industrial EBIT losses.

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