New project preparations and launches have ramped up in 2024 YTD: The housing market in Vietnam bottomed out in 2023 and has since shown a gradual recovery in primary transactions, beginning in Q3 2023 and continuing throughout 2024 YTD, with the condo segment in Hanoi leading the recovery. The rise in preparation activities for new project launches, along with ongoing improvement in homebuyer confidence in 2024 YTD, reaffirms our expectation for growth in primary property transactions in 2024F vs 2023.

We project market transactions to strengthen in Q4 2024 and 2025, led by our expectations for: (1) sustained demand for real living purposes, particularly targeting mid-end condo projects; (2) a return of investment buyers to select landed property products; (3) growth in new primary supply driven by more project launches and smoother legal procedures; and (4) improving homebuyer confidence, driven by the continuous recovery of the overall property market, a stable mortgage rate outlook, and the acceleration of key infrastructure development. We believe that homebuyers will continue to favor projects (i) from proven developers with a track record of pink book handovers and after-sales services, (ii) that have clear legal status, and (iii) are strategically located and well-connected with amenities and infrastructure development.

We expect the net average selling prices (ASPs) for primary condo and landed properties to continue rising in 2025F, with single-digit growth. We have observed that developers continue to focus on the mid-end and high-end segments, offering high-quality handover standards amid limited new supply and potentially higher development costs. 

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