- We maintain our BUY rating for VPB and increase our target price (TP) by 2.1% to VND24,500/share as the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2025F outweighs our 7% decrease in aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (respective changes of +2%/-9%/-11%/-8%/-7% in 2024/25/26/27/28F) mainly due to trimming our NIM and NOII forecasts. 

- We increase our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 1.6% to VND13.3tn (USD534mn; +32.7% YoY), which is mainly driven by (1) a 6.7% decrease in our provision expenses forecast and (2) a 3.7% decrease in OPEX that outweighs (3) a 13.8% decrease in NOII. 

- We believe that the following factors will contribute to medium-term strong earnings growth: (1) a rebound in top-line growth and (2) a gradual improvement in contributions from FEC.

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