Aggregate 9M 2023 NPAT-MI for our coverage universe declined 8% YoY and achieved 72% of our current full-year 2023 forecast (as of November 6). 9M 2023 NPAT-MI for our HSX-listed coverage declined 6% YoY and also achieved 72% of our full-year 2023F forecast. Our analysts have updated forecasts for 13 of the 80 stocks under our coverage following the Q3 2023 results and will update their numbers for other stocks over the next few weeks. However, our initial judgement is that 9M 2023 earnings slightly lagged our full-year 2023 forecasts and we anticipate modest downside risk to our 2023F forecasts in aggregate. 

Outlook. Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated further in Q3 2023 with a modest recovery in the export sector and robust fiscal spending. Meanwhile, lower interest rates and supportive regulatory developments started to produce some signs of nascent recovery in the troubled real estate and corporate bond markets. We therefore maintain our view that the economy and corporate earnings will enjoy a decent recovery in 2024. Meanwhile, VN-Index valuations look undemanding relative to recent history and other ASEAN markets at projected 2023F and 2024F P/Es of 13.1x and 10.7x, respectively, based on our forecasts. We therefore maintain our VN-Index targets at 1,250 for 2023 and 1,450 for 2024.

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