- We reiterate our BUY rating for TLG. However, we cut our target price by 10% as we increase our WACC assumption from 11.1% to 11.9% and trim our aggregate 2022F-2026F NPAT by 2% due to our lower sales volume assumptions. 

- We forecast revenue to rise 7% YoY in 2023 after a 32% YoY rebound in 2022. 2023F revenue growth represents a deceleration vs the pre-COVID level as (1) we are conservative on demand from both the export and domestic markets in the short term and (2) TLG continues to focus less on inefficient trading SKUs vs pre-COVID to improve profit margins. We forecast core NPAT (excluding FX gains) will increase 10% YoY in 2023.

- We forecast a 2022-2025 core EPS CAGR of 13% as we remain confident regarding TLG’s medium-term outlook that is premised on (1) the company’s solid market leadership thanks to its diversified product portfolio and widespread distribution network, (2) the structural growth in demand for stationery from Vietnam’s high-growth education and office sectors and (3) increased penetration into export markets.

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