- We raise our target price (TP) for TCB by 5.5% to VND44,500/share but downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM as the share price has increased 24% in the last three months.

- Our higher TP is mainly driven by a 1.4% aggregate increase in our projection for 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (with respective changes of 1.0%/-0.9%/-0.4%/3.3%/3.1% in 2024/25/26/27/28F). In addition, we also model for TCB to pay an annual cash dividend with a payout ratio of ~15% to 20% from 2024 to 2028.

- The increase in our 2024-2028F earnings forecast is mainly due to (1) a 1.8% aggregate increase in NII following an upward revision in our assumption for average credit growth from ~14% to ~17% that outweighs a downward revision in the average assumption for NIM from 4.65% to 4.16% and (2) a 16.0% aggregate increase in pure NFI as we are more optimistic on the potential growth of fees from the bonds and securities segments, especially after the recovery of both segments in Q4 2023. These are partly offset by a 10.8% increase in OPEX and an 18.3% increase in provision expenses.

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