This Thought Piece discusses: (1) the recent increase in Chinese steel exports to Vietnam and its effect on domestic prices, (2) the anti-dumping (AD) investigation process in Vietnam and developments in two recently proposed AD cases - hot rolled coil (HRC) and galvanized steel sheets - and (3) our views on the likelihood of official AD tariffs being imposed on these products.

China’s steel exports are surging, driven by overcapacity due to the country’s sluggish property sector. China’s steel exports rose 39% YoY in 2023, reaching 92mn tonnes due to a weak domestic real estate market, which drove domestic excess supply to 79mn tonnes. We believe these statistics could increase in 2024, as steel exports from China grew 25% YoY in 5M 2024. As 2023 exports are comparable to annual volumes seen during 2014-2016, when Chinese steel exports flooded the global market, concerns about Chinese steel dumping are reemerging.

Vietnam has been a leading destination for China’s recent surge in steel exports, with volume growth of 84% YoY in 5M 2024. This has prompted Vietnam’s two domestic producers of hot-rolled coil (HPG and Formosa), and five galvanized steel producers (including HSG and NKG) to submit proposals to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) to initiate AD investigations. The focus of these investigations is on imported HRC from China and India and imported galvanized steel sheets from China and South Korea.

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