- 2024-01-31T00:00:00
- Company Research
SSI released consolidated results for 2023 with a net profit of VND2.3tn (USD95mn; +35.2% YoY), fulfilling 101% of our FY2023 forecast. 2023 operating income (defined to include gains but not losses on the principal book) increased 13.0% YoY to VND7.2tn (USD296mn), completing 108% of our full-year forecast, with gains from FVTPL as the key growth driver. We attribute the main reasons behind a 56.8% YoY increase in 2023 gains from FVTPL to corporate bonds trading and investment activities. Meanwhile, 2023 operating expenses decreased by 10.0% YoY and completed 111% of our full-year forecast, primarily due to a lower-than-expected loss from FVTPL. Q4 2023 NPAT was VND514bn (-27.6% QoQ; +120% YoY). Overall, SSI’s results were broadly in line with our expectations. We see no material changes to our earnings forecasts for SSI, pending a more extensive review.
- 2023 consolidated PBT from principal investment increased 186% YoY, accounting for 55.3% of SSI’s PBT. Q4 2023 consolidated PBT from principal investment decreased 6.7% QoQ, accounting for 59.5% of SSI’s PBT.
- 2023 gains from HTM investments (which include deposits and certificates of deposit with terms of less than one year) increased 13.5% YoY amid a relatively flat average HTM balance, which could have been partly thanks to the impact of high interest rates in H1 2023, in our view.
- 2023 brokerage revenue decreased 12.0% YoY following a 13.0% YoY drop in 2023 average daily trading value (ADTV) to USD738mn from USD849mn in 2022. We estimate that SSI’s market share on three trading venues combined increased 67 bps YoY to 10.0% in 2023. For Q4 2023 alone, brokerage revenue decreased 30.0% QoQ as SSI lost market share on a 28% QoQ drop in Q4 2023 ADTV.
- In Q4 2023, SSI’s margin lending book increased 36.9% YoY but was relatively flat QoQ despite a low interest rate environment, which we believe could have been due to investors’ concerns amid an uncertain economic backdrop and/or stiff competition.
SSI’s consolidated 2023 results
VND bn | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY |
Operating income | 6,336 | 7,158 | 13.0% | 1,351 | 2,047 | 51.5% |
Gains from FVTPL | 2,020 | 3,167 | 56.8% | 526 | 1,007 | 91.3% |
Gains from HTM | 417 | 474 | 13.5% | 82 | 114 | 39.7% |
Gains from AFS | 3 | 6.0 | 110.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 547.5% |
Margin lending revenue | 1,801 | 1,568 | -12.9% | 345 | 439 | 27.2% |
Brokerage revenue | 1,707 | 1,502 | -12.0% | 319 | 374 | 17.5% |
Commission rate | 0.19% | 0.18% | -1.0 bps | 0.19% | 0.18% | -1.0 bps |
IB revenue | 105 | 92 | -11.6% | 19 | 26 | 40.4% |
Others | 283 | 348 | 22.8% | 60 | 85 | 41.1% |
Operating expenses | 2,705 | 2,435 | -10.0% | 641 | 926 | 44.5% |
Loss from FVTPL | 962 | 656 | -31.8% | 197 | 386 | 95.9% |
Expenses for brokerage | 1,337 | 1,316 | -1.5% | 319 | 357 | 12.0% |
Others | 407 | 462 | 13.6% | 125 | 183 | 46.6% |
Gross operating profit | 3,631 | 4,723 | 30.1% | 710 | 1,121 | 57.8% |
Financial income | 181 | 123 | -31.8% | 106 | 48 | -54.9% |
Gains from affiliates/ divestments | 117 | 88 | -24.7% | 83 | 38 | -54.5% |
Financial expenses | 1,416 | 1,638 | 15.7% | 449 | 411 | -8.6% |
Borrowing costs | 1,031 | 1,570 | 52.4% | 251 | 393 | 57.0% |
G&A expenses | 296 | 362 | 22.0% | 86 | 114 | 33.7% |
Net other income | 10.0 | 1.5 | -85.2% | 7.3 | 0.5 | -92.8% |
PBT | 2,110 | 2,849 | 35.0% | 289 | 644 | 123.2% |
NPAT | 1,698 | 2,294 | 35.2% | 234 | 514 | 119.9% |
Margin lending book | 11,057 | 15,134 | 36.9% | 11,057 | 15,134 | 36.9% |
GPM % | 57.3% | 66.0% | 8.7 ppts | 52.6% | 54.8% | 2.2 ppts |
NPM % | 26.8% | 32.1% | 5.3 ppts | 17.3% | 25.1% | 7.8 ppts |
Source: SSI, Vietcap (units are in VND bn unless otherwise stated)
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