- PPC released strong Q4 2022 results with revenue of VND1.6tn (USD67mn; +202% YoY) and reported NPAT of VND69bn compared to a loss of VND7bn in Q4 2021. We attribute the robust NPAT in Q4 2022 to a higher sales volume of 828 million kWh (+144% YoY) and higher ASP of VND 1,903/kWh (+53% YoY) as well as lower YoY maintenance expenses. These factors outweigh a plunge in dividend income and SG&A expenses doubling YoY.  

- 2022 results are in line with our full-year 2022F forecasts with revenue of VND5.1tn (USD214mn; +32% YoY) and reported NPAT of VND373bn (USD16mn; +72% YoY) as they completed 100% and 102% our full-year forecasts, respectively.

- We see insignificant change to our 2023F NPAT forecast, pending a fuller review. We project PPC’s 2023F NPAT to increase ~50% YoY due to its S6 generator that is expected to become operational in mid-2023, which should support a 48% YoY recovery in the company’s sales volume. PPC’s associate companies’ 2022 NPAT trailed our forecast, but we do not think this will materially impact our 2023 dividend income assumptions. We expect HND’s DPS at VND1,200 in 2022 vs VND800 in 2021 as its 2022 NPAT grew by 25% YoY. We forecast QTP’s DPS at VND1,600 in 2022, which is flat vs 2021.

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