- We raise our target price (TP) for PLX by 20% to VND44,500/share and upgrade our rating to BUY from OUTPERFORM. Our higher TP reflects (1) a 14% higher aggregate 2024-28F reported NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of +2%/+20%/+19%/+17%/+12% for 2024/25/26/27/28F), and (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2025F. 

- Our higher aggregate NPAT-MI forecast is driven by (1) 3.4% higher aggregate volume for 2024-28F, as we expect stricter regulations to help PLX  maintain its high base market share, and (2) 12.3% higher gross profit per liter following Q1 results, and as we expect the new decree to provide benefits for PLX by empowering petrol distributors to set their own prices. 

- We forecast 2024F reported NPAT to grow by 29% due to (1) a 4% YoY increase in domestic volume, (2) a 9% YoY increase in gross profit per liter, which outweigh our estimated VND300bn loss from the Petrolimex Laos divestment. Q1 NPAT was VND1.1tn (+73% YoY).

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