- We cut our target price for PC1 by 2% to VND29,400/share and downgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM. Our lower target price is due to an 11% cut in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (29%/17%/30% cuts for 2023/24/25F and 2%/9% increases for 2026/2027F), which outweighs the positive effect of rolling our target price horizon forward to mid-2024.

- Our lower aggregate earnings forecast is due to (1) our lower aggregate NPAT-MI forecast for the energy segment as we delay the commercial operation of two potential wind power projects (total capacity of 300 MW) from 2024-2025 to 2026-2027 and (2) our lower forecast for PC1’s aggregate 2023-2027F shared profit from its 30%-stake in Western Pacific JSC as we delay the operation of the Yen Phong Industrial Park (IP) and the Ha Nam IP from 2023-2025 to 2024-2026 following management’s guidance announced at PC1’s 2023 AGM. This is partly offset by the addition of the fully-owned Nomura IP Phase 2 JSC in 2026-2027F and the 5-ha Vinh Hung residential real estate project in 2027.

- We forecast 2023F NPAT-MI of VND500bn (+9% YoY), which is driven by (1) our assumption of no FX loss in 2023 vs ~VND140bn FX loss in 2022, (2) contributions from the newly-acquired Nomura IP and nickel sales, and (3) our higher earnings forecasts for the wind power and real estate segments, which outweigh lower earnings from the power construction and hydropower segments.

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