NLG [OUTPERFORM +12.2%] - 2024F earnings and presales to rebound

- We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for NLG but cut target price by 3% to VND41,000/share.

- Our lower target price is mainly due to (i) a 26% decrease in our aggregate 2023-2025F presales forecast amid slower-than-expected QoQ improvement in property market activities in Q3 2023, and (ii) a higher WACC assumption. These factors are partially offset by rolling forward our target price horizon to end-2024.

- We expect the main drivers for Q4 2023F earnings to be (i) deliveries at Southgate, Mizuki Park and Izumi City as well as (ii) one-off gain from commercial land sales at the Kikyo Residence project. We lower our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast by 31% to VND419bn (USD17.5mn; -25% YoY) as we delay Paragon stake sales recognition to 2024F vs 2023F due to slower legal progress, which is partly offset by our higher projection for Izumi City and Mizuki Park handovers.