- 2024-05-07T00:00:00
- Company Research
We attended IDC’s May 7 analyst meeting and our key takeaways are below:
* IP land sales: In Q1 2024, IDC achieved IP land sales of 26.2 ha in signed contracts and MoUs (vs our 2024F forecast of 145 ha). Q1 2024 IP land sales at the Huu Thanh, Que Vo 2, and Phu My 2 IPs were 12.1 ha, 12 ha, and 2 ha, respectively. The land sales at the Phu My 2, Phu My 2 Expansion and Cau Nghin IPs were minimal in the quarter as IDC is still negotiating with potential clients. The company anticipates IP land sales to pick up in upcoming quarters and remains confident in achieving its 2024G IP land sales guidance of 145 ha.
* IP land handovers: IDC handed over 34 ha in Q1 2024 (vs our 2024F forecast of 110 ha), among which is (1) 30 ha from IP land sales made in 2023 and (2) 4 ha from new contracts in Q1 2024. As such, we estimate that the unbilled backlog at end-Q1 2024 amounted to ~118 ha (96 ha from 2023 contracts/MOUs and 22 ha from Q1 2024 contracts/MOUs), supporting the profit outlook in upcoming quarters.
* Selling prices: Average asking prices slightly improved to ~USD134/sqm at end-Q1 2024 from ~USD129/sqm at end-2023. Among which, the prices at Huu Thanh and Que Vo 2 have increased by around 5% and 14%, reaching ~USD156/sqm and ~USD136/sqm, respectively. Additionally, the prices at Phu My 2, Phu My 2 Expansion, and Cau Nghin have remained broadly stable at ~USD124/sqm, ~USD126/sqm, and ~USD78/sqm, respectively.
* Tan Phuoc 1 IP: This IP (total site area of 470 ha; Tien Giang Province) has completed all legal procedures and is awaiting for final approval by the PM. At the April 2024 AGM, management guided for the Tan Phuoc 1 IP to start development in 2024 after the investment approval for this project is approved and to start land sales from Q3 2025. We currently expect this IP to contribute to IDC’s sales outlook from 2026F.
* Overall, we anticipate no significant changes to our 2024F IP land sales and handovers forecasts as we continue to expect the large unbilled backlog to support IDC’s profit outlook while we anticipate IP land sales to pick up in the following quarters. Please also refer to our April 26 Earnings Flash for IDC’s Q1 2024 results.
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