• We attended IDC’s annual general meeting (AGM) on April 26.
• Shareholders approved management’s guidance for total revenue (including net revenue, financial income, & other income) of VND8.5tn (USD339mn; +13% YoY) and PBT of VND2.5tn (USD100mn; +22% YoY), which are broadly in line with our expectations as they are equivalent to 97% and 93% of our respective 2024F forecasts. IDC completed 112%/81% of its respective 2022/2023 PBT guidance.  
• IDC guides for 2024G IP land sales of 145 ha (vs 170 ha in 2023), similar to our forecast. In addition, the company guides for RBF leasing of 5 ha in 2024G, which has not been accounted for in our forecast. 
• Shareholders approved (1) a FY2023 dividend plan of 40% on par value (par value of VND10,000/share; VND3,500/share interim dividend was paid) and (2) a FY2024 dividend plan of 40% on par in cash and/or stocks. IDC normally pays dividends in cash.  
• IDC released Q1 2024 results with revenue jumping 115% YoY to VND2.5tn (USD99mn) and NPAT-MI surging 4.7x YoY to VND695bn (USD28mn), achieving 29% and 37% of our respective full-year forecasts. We foresee insignificant change to our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review. 

 Solid land bank expansion pipeline. Management guides for Tan Phuoc 1 IP (total site area of 470 ha; Tien Giang Province) to start development in 2024 after the investment approval for this project is approved and to start land sales from Q3 2025. In addition, IDC is progressing legal procedures at other IP projects in Hai Phong, Ninh Binh, and other provinces, with a total site area of more than 2,000 ha. Per IDC’s statement, after the release of the Decision 227/QĐ-TTG dated March 12, 2024, that updates the land quota (including IP land; for more details on the decision, please refer to our Sector Thought Piece), IDC’s pipeline IP projects have been included in the provincial masterplan, creating a basis for expecting these projects to receive investment approval in the future. 

Management aims for dividend policy to be maintain at 30-40% on par value in the coming years. This policy is supported by management’s expectations for IP land sales prospects to remain resilient at 120-150 ha/year and for operating cash flow to range from VND3-4tn (USD120-160mn). The current remaining leasable land bank at end-2023 of 580 ha could sustain IP land sales for the next 3-4 years, while the upcoming pipeline should support long-term land sales prospects. 

Q1 2024 NPAT-MI surged YoY driven by significant YoY increases in IP & UA land handovers. The IP segment’s revenue surged 6.3x YoY to VND1.3tn in Q1 2024 (USD52mn), mainly driven by scheduled IP land handovers at the Phu My 2 IP and the Huu Thanh IP. We estimate ~40 ha was handed over in Q1 2024, the end-2023 unbilled backlog was ~156 ha, and the total cash inflow from IP land sales in Q1 2024 was VND1.1tn (USD46mn; +46% YoY and completed 22% of our full-year forecast). Meanwhile, the residential segment’s revenue jumped 9.3x YoY to VND281bn (USD11mn), driven by the handover of 1.45 ha to Aeon (0.75 ha remaining to be handed over to Aeon).  

IDC’s Q1 2024 results 

Source: IDC, Vietcap forecast (last updated February 19, 2024) 

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