- 2024-04-26T00:00:00
- Company Research
- GMD released its Q1 2024 results with net revenue of VND1tn (USD40mn; -3% QoQ, +11% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND559bn (USD22.4mn; 387% QoQ, +177% YoY).
- The abnormal surge in Q1 2024 NPAT-MI was due to a financial gain of VND336bn (USD13.4mn) from the divestment of the Nam Hai port in mid-March 2024, which was higher than our expectation of around VND150-300bn (USD6.0-12.0mn), as stated in our latest Update Report, dated March 6, 2024. Excluding the NHDV port divestment, we estimate GMD’s Q1 2024 core NPAT-MI to be VND302bn (USD12.1mn; +49% YoY).
- Strong Q1 2024 results were mainly supported by 56% YoY growth in GMD’s total throughput to 908,000 TEUs, driven by the recovery in export activities from a low base in Q1 2023, when total throughput recorded a 26% YoY decline.
- As Q1 2024 revenue and core NPAT-MI were broadly in line with our expectations, with both fulfilling 24% of our forecasts, we see insignificant change to our 2024 forecast for core business, pending a fuller review. However, as noted in our latest Analyst Meeting Note, management’s view remains more cautious than ours regarding the speed and magnitude of recovery in H2 2024.
- Segment performance:
- Northern ports: GMD’s consolidated port revenue (derived from GMD’s northern ports) grew 2% QoQ and 29% YoY, fulfilling 25% of our full-year forecast. Solid Q1 2024 revenue was driven by 14% YoY growth in throughput (equivalent to 277,000 TEUs). This segment’s gross margin also expanded to 43.2% from 40.0% of Q4 2023, which is the lowest quarterly level in 2023.
- Gemalink: Gemalink reported Q1 2024 net profit of VND74bn (USD2.9mn), fulfilling 22% of our full-year forecast of VND331bn (USD13.2mn). This is the second consecutive profitable quarter for Gemalink after four quarters of net losses during Q4 2022 to Q3 2023. Gemalink reported robust Q1 2024 throughput of 350,000 TEUs (+112% YoY), outperforming its peers in the southern region due to both higher throughput from existing clients as well as the contributions from new services acquired in Q4 2024.
- Logistics: The logistics segment Q1 2024 result came in weaker than our expectation with gross profit falling 20% QoQ and 47% YoY due to both declining revenue and gross margin normalization.
GMD’s Q1 2024 results
| Q1 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | QoQ | YoY | Vietcap's 2024F | Q1 as % of 2024F |
Revenue | 902 | 1,034 | 1,006 | -3% | 11% | 4,263 | 24% |
Ports | 655 | 825 | 843 | 2% | 29% | 3,315 | 25% |
Logistics | 247 | 209 | 163 | -22% | -34% | 949 | 17% |
Gross Profit | 427 | 426 | 441 | 4% | 3% | 1,971 | 22% |
Ports | 281 | 330 | 364 | 10% | 30% | 1,525 | 24% |
Logistics | 146 | 96 | 77 | -20% | -47% | 446 | 17% |
SG&A expenses | -127 | -276 | -149 | -46% | 18% | -669 | 22% |
Operating profit | 300 | 150 | 291 | 95% | -3% | 1,301 | 22% |
Financial income | 21 | 24 | 354 | 1,361% | 1,598% | 32 | 1113% |
Financial expenses | -40 | -25 | -39 | 56% | -2% | -175 | 22% |
Net income from affiliates | 21 | 139 | 98 | -30% | 358% | 551 | 18% |
Net other income/(loss) | 6 | -35 | 4 | -111% | -35% | -21 | -18% |
PBT | 308 | 253 | 708 | 179% | 130% | 1,688 | 42% |
NPAT | 255 | 192 | 656 | 242% | 157% | 1,515 | 43% |
MI | 53 | 77 | 97 | 26% | 83% | 242 | 40% |
NPAT-MI | 202 | 115 | 559 | 387% | 177% | 1,273 | 44% |
Core NPAT-MI* | 202 | 115 | 302 | 163% | 49% | 1,273 | 24% |
Gross margin | 47.3% | 41.2% | 43.8% |
|
| 42.4% |
|
Port | 42.9% | 40.0% | 43.2% |
|
| 43.0% |
|
Logistics | 59.0% | 45.9% | 47.3% |
|
| 40.0% |
|
SG&A/Sales | 14.0% | 26.7% | 14.9% |
|
| 15.7% |
|
EBIT margin | 33.3% | 14.5% | 29.0% |
|
| 29.0% |
|
NPAT-MI margin | 22.4% | 11.1% | 55.6% |
|
| 26.7% |
|
Core NPAT-MI margin* | 22.4% | 11.1% | 30.0% |
|
| 42.4% |
|
Source: GMD, Vietcap forecast (last updated March 6, 2024; *excluding impact from divestments)
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