- We downgrade GMD to MARKET PERFORM rating from OUTPERFORM and trim our target price (TP) by 2% to VND78,300/share. GMD’s share price has gained 13% over the last three months.

- Our decreased TP is driven mainly by a respective 8%/4%/1% NPAT-MI cut in 2024F/25F/26F because 1) we are more conservative on the performance of northern ports given 2023 throughput and the margin were lower than our expectations, and 2) higher SG&A expenses. 

- We cut our 2024F core NPAT-MI (i.e., excluding the impact of divestments) by 8% to VND1.3tn (USD46.7mn; +62% YoY) due to lower forecasted throughput and gross margin for northern ports as well as higher SG&A expenses. Nevertheless, we are more positive about Gemalink’s throughput and consequently, its earnings, in 2024F.

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