- GDT released weak Q3 2022 results with its revenue and NPAT slumping 51% YoY and 57% YoY, respectively. GDT’s 9M 2022 revenue and NPAT completed 64% and 70% of our respective full-year forecasts. We see potential downside risks to our forecasts, pending a fuller review.

- The bullwhip effect — in which overstocking and destocking exacerbate the impact of fluctuation on demand on upstream exporters — was especially prominent in the case of GDT among light industry, consumer-oriented exporters that we cover. 

- While GDT’s H1 2022 NPAT experienced high-teen growth — an acceleration compared to its normal growth rate — the company’s sales and earnings plunged QoQ in Q3 2022. On another note, GDT’s Q3 2022 GPM remained high at 35.1% vs 36.8% in Q2 2022, which was a silver lining. We note that Q3 2021 saw supply chain disruptions due to nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns in Vietnam, which makes a YoY comparison not meaningful.