- We reduce our target price for GAS by 4.3% but maintain a BUY rating. Our lower target price is due to a 100-bp increase in our house equity risk premium and 156-bp increase in cost of debt, which outweigh the positive impact of rolling our target price horizon to end-2023. Meanwhile, we keep our 2022-2026F aggregate NPAT-MI forecast nearly unchanged.

- We raise our 2022F NPAT-MI forecast by 2.6% thanks to an upward revision in financial income as well as a lower average input gas price (driven by a higher volume contribution from cheap gas fields) to outweigh our slightly lower fuel oil (FO) price and LPG price assumptions. In addition, we broadly maintain our 2023-2026F NPAT forecasts as our slightly lower volume assumption offsets the positive impact of the higher VND/USD exchange rate on GAS’s profit.

- We forecast flat 2023F NPAT-MI as 15% YoY higher volume and increased profit from the Thi Vai LNG terminal offset our slightly lower YoY FO prices and 15% YoY higher input gas costs.

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