We raise our average Brent oil price base case by USD5/bbl across our forecast period. OPEC+ has maintained its decision to ease production cuts by only 400,000 bpd per month through December 2022. Additionally, new forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expect US production to be slightly lower for 2022F while 2022 demand forecasts from the EIA and International Energy Agency (IEA) have increased to pre-COVID levels. These factors should support oil prices in Q4 2021 and 2022F. In 9M 2021, the average Brent price was USD67/bbl. We raise our 2021-2022F average Brent crude oil price forecast ~8% from USD65/bbl to USD70/bbl. We also raise our Brent oil price assumption for 2023-2025F from USD60/bbl to USD65/bbl. We assume a full OPEC+ production recovery to offset a post-COVID demand recovery from 2023.

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