DXG [MARKET PERFORM +7.6%] - Gem Riverside and Gem Sky World relaunches to fuel presales

- We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for DXG while lowering our target price by 9% to VND17,000/share, mainly due to (1) our slower presales projection for Gem Sky World (GSW) in 2024-2026F, (2) a higher net-debt balance at end-Q2 2024, and (3) a lower valuation for DXS (DXG’s 59%-owned subsidiary).

- We lower our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 13% primarily due to a lower projected revenue recognition at GSW. We lower our 2025F and 2026F NPAT-MI forecasts by 7% and 17%, respectively, reflecting our lower projection for DXS's property sales and a shift in the expected start of Gem Riverside handovers to 2027F vs 2026F previously.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI of VND201bn (USD7.9mn; +17% YoY) and 2025F NPAT-MI of VND340bn (USD13.3mn; +69% vs 2024F) to be mainly driven by (1) resumed sales/handovers at GSW (total 3,900 low-rise units; ~60% presold and ~40% delivered at end-Q2 2024), and (2) recovery in the property brokerage segment.