CTR – Modest earnings growth, despite strong infrastructure leasing – Earnings Flash
  • 2024-10-28T00:00:00
  • Company Research

* 9M 2024 results: CTR announced its 9M 2024 results with net revenue of VND9.1tn (USD364.3mn; +12% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND387bn (USD15.5mn; +4% YoY). These results complete 71% and 66% of our respective full-year forecasts and slightly trail our expectations, mainly due to  lower-than-expected revenue growth and GPMs across all segments, except for the operation segment. As a result, we see potential slight downside risk to our 2024F projections. 

* Q3 2024 results: Net revenue increased 13% YoY to VND3.5tn (USD139.0mn), driven by robust revenue growth of the infrastructure leasing segment. Additionally, NPAT-MI increased at a slower pace of 4% YoY to VND146bn (USD5.8mn), which we attribute to lower GPMs YoY across all segments. 

* Segmental performance in 9M 2024: 

- Infrastructure leasing segment: 

+ Revenue increased significantly by 43% YoY in 9M 2024, driven by the towerco business. CTR’s tower count jumped 54% YoY to 8,812 towers at end-September 2024. In 9M 2024, CTR built 2,376 new towers, fulfilling 53% of our full-year forecast of 4,500 new towers. In addition, the tenancy ratio remained broadly unchanged at 1.03 at end-September 2024 vs end-September 2023. 

+ GPM contracted by 3.2 ppts YoY to 28.5% in 9M 2024, which we attribute to (1) higher depreciation expenses from new towers that were completely constructed but had not been put into operation, and (2) a lower contribution from the high-margin cable leasing business. 

- The construction segment posted 13% YoY revenue growth in 9M 2024, which we believe was primarily led by the residential construction subsegment (including realization of a strong signed backlog carried over from 2023 and some of the new signed backlog in 9M 2024). However, construction revenue growth decelerated to 1% YoY in Q3 2024, which we attribute to disruptions in construction activities during Typhoon Yagi in September. 

- The operation segment recorded 9M 2024 revenue growth of 13% YoY, which was fueled by (1) expansion in overseas markets and (2) Vietnam’s fixed-line broadband subscriber growth of 5% YoY in 8M 2024, per the Ministry of Information and Communications. 

- The system integration & technical services segments reported a 2% YoY decline in revenue in 9M 2024. 

CTR’s Q2024 & 9M 2024 results 

VND bn 

Q3 2024 

YoY 

9M 2024 

YoY 

9M 2024/ 

Vietcap's 2024F 

Revenue 

3,476 

13% 

9,108 

12% 

71% 

Operation 

1,670 

20% 

4,781 

13% 

77% 

Infrastructure leasing 

166 

52% 

449 

43% 

64% 

Construction 

1,154 

1% 

2,705 

13% 

67% 

System integration & technical services 

486 

11% 

1,173 

-2% 

62% 

EBITDA* 

245 

3% 

742 

15% 

65% 

Operation 

73 

11% 

230 

16% 

77% 

Infrastructure leasing 

102 

56% 

275 

41% 

62% 

Construction 

42 

-43% 

153 

-7% 

59% 

System integration & technical services 

29 

-15% 

85 

-4% 

63% 

PBT 

177 

1% 

483 

4% 

66% 

NPAT-MI 

146 

4% 

387 

4% 

66% 

EBITDA margin 

7.1% 

-0.7 ppts 

8.1% 

0.2 ppts 

 

Operation 

4.3% 

-0.4 ppts 

4.8% 

0.1 ppts 

 

Infrastructure leasing 

61.2% 

1.6 ppts 

61.2% 

-1.1 ppts 

 

Construction 

3.6% 

-2.7 ppts 

5.6% 

-1.3 ppts 

 

System integration & technical services 

6.1% 

-1.8 ppts 

7.2% 

-0.2 ppts 

 

NPM 

4.2% 

-0.4 ppts 

4.2% 

-0.3 ppts 

 

Source: CTR, Vietcap (*Vietcap’s estimates for segmental EBITDA) 

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