CTG released 2022 results with TOI of VND64.6tn (USD2.7bn; +21.5% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND16.9tn (USD716mn; +20.0% YoY), achieving 104.2% and 102.8% of our FY2022 forecasts, respectively. The increase in the bottom line was mainly due to (1) a 14.7% YoY increase in NII and (2) 46.5% YoY increase in NOII, which were partly offset by a 12.3% YoY increase in OPEX and 31.5% YoY increase in provision expenses. Q4 2022 NPAT-MI was VND4.3tn (+27.6% QoQ & +46.0% YoY). We see no material changes to our earnings forecasts for CTG, pending a fuller review.

Q4 2022 corporate bond balance decreased 58.9% QoQ, accounting for 0.4% of CTG’s credit balance — the lowest among SOE banks. The corporate bond balance over credit balance as of Q4 2022 at VCB and BID were 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively. 

NIM decreased on a QoQ basis and was relatively flat on a YoY basis. CTG reported relatively flat NIM of 2.98% (-3 bps YoY) in 2022 vs 2021. However, solid credit growth of 12.2% YoY partly helped the bank to deliver decent 2022 NII growth of 14.7% YoY to VND47.9tn. Q4 2022 NIM decreased 11 bps QoQ as a 70-bp QoQ increase in COF outweighed a 57-bp QoQ increase in the IEA yield. CTG succeeded to maintain its CASA ratio at 20.0% in Q4 2022 vs 20.5% in Q3 2022 and 20.1% in Q4 2021.

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