- We raise our target price (TP) for BID by 16.8% to VND54,200/share but downgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM as the share price has increased ~35% in the last three months.

- Our higher TP is due to (1) a 13.5% increase in our projection for aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (respective increases of 6.6%/10.4%/12.5%/13.7%/20.4% in 2024/25/26/27/28F), and (2) an increase in our assumption for BID’s target P/B from 2.2x to 2.4x.

- The increase in aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI is primarily driven by a 7.5% aggregate increase in NII following an upward revision in our average NIM assumption, particularly focused on the last three years of the explicit forecast period as we believe our previous NIM assumption was rather conservative amid stronger-than-expected growth in 2023 retail loans. This is partly offset by a 5.8% decrease in aggregate NFI (including gains from FX trading) and a 7.5% increase in aggregate provision expenses. Our average assumption for 2024-2028F credit costs remain unchanged at ~ 1.15%.

Powered by Froala Editor