- We maintain our target price (TP) for ACB at VND32,000/share and maintain a BUY rating. Our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT forecast is almost unchanged (-1.6%/+0.2%/ -1.8%/-1.1%/+0.3% for 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively).

- Our relatively unchanged aggregate earnings forecast is due to (1) a 4.1% rise in aggregate NOII from increased corporate exposure, outweighing (2) a 2.5% rise in provision expenses due to a higher 2024F NPL ratio forecast of 1.0% from 0.8% as previously forecasted. 

- ACB’s Q2 2024 Circular 02 restructured loans over total credit was 0.31%, down from 0.45% in Q1 2024. We attribute this to (1) a decrease in demand for new debt restructuring and (2) a portion of this deterioration shifting to NPLs, leading to an upward revision in our 2024F NPL ratio forecast.

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