VTP announced its Q1 2023 results with revenue of VND4.7tn (USD203mn; -17% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND76bn (USD3.2mn; -27% YoY), completing 26% and 21% of our respective full-year forecasts. On a QoQ basis, VTP’s earnings significantly rebounded vs a low base in Q4 2022 with NPAT-MI of VND1.1bn. We currently expect VTP will continue its recovery throughout the rest of 2023.  We see no material risk to our current projection, pending a fuller review. 

VTP’s revenue declined from a high base in Q1 2023. We attribute the decline to the (1) high base in Q1 2022 following the relaxation of COVID social distancing measures, which released stockpiled goods, (2) weaker shopping demand in Q1 2023 due to low consumer confidence from economic headwinds, and (3) the declining momentum of the trading segment (i.e., selling mobile phone cards) on the wide adoption of online top-ups.