• We maintain our BUY rating for VPB but decrease our target price (TP) by 10% to VND27,000/share due to (1) a cut in our target P/B multiple from 1.85x to 1.50x and (2) an increase in our cost of equity from 13.0% to 15.6%, which are partly offset by (3) a 4.3% aggregate increase in our projected 2022-2026F NPAT and (4) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2023F.
•  We decrease our 2022F net income by 3.6% to VND20.2tn (USD815mn; +76% YoY) vs our previous forecast as a result of (1) a 0.5% decrease in our NII forecast and (2) 6.8% increase in our provision charge assumption that outweigh (3) a 6.3% increase in NOII. 
• We model for a private placement of 1.19 billion primary shares to a foreign strategic investor to amass a 15% stake in mid-2023F. 
• Downside risks: Failure to secure a strategic investor would make our projected increases in offshore funding/credit growth harder to achieve; failure to contain credit costs — especially at FE Credit. 

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