- We maintain our BUY rating for VPB but decrease our target price (TP) by 3.7% to VND26,000/share due to (1) our 15.7% aggregate decrease in our projection for 2023-2027F NPAT-MI that outweighs (2) lowering our cost of equity assumption from 15.6% to 14.5%. 

- We decrease our 2023F net income (before MI) by 21.2% to VND21.0tn (USD756mn; +5.4% YoY) vs our previous forecast as a result of (1) a 4.2% decrease in our NII forecast due to revising down our NIM and loan growth at FEC, in addition to (2) a 2.7% increase in OPEX and (3) a 7.6% increase in our provision charge assumption.

- We model for a private placement of 1.19 billion primary shares to a foreign strategic investor to amass a 15% stake in mid-2023F, which will enhance VPB’s top-tier CAR.

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