- We upgrade our rating for VPB from OUTPERFORM to BUY and increase our target price (TP) by 2.1% to VND24,000/share, primarily due to (1) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to end-2024F and (2) a 0.9% increase in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (respective changes of-5.7%/5.5%/7.2%/1.3%/-2.8% in 2023/24/25/26/27F). 

- We decrease our 2023F NPAT-MI by 5.7% to VND11.9tn (USD486mn; -35% YoY) vs our previous forecast, which is mainly driven by (1) a 3.1% decrease in our NII forecast from lowering our NIM assumption that outweighs (2) a 3.8% decrease in our provision charge assumption. Additionally, we cut our full-year net loss forecast for FEC by 34.8% following better-than-expected Q3 2023 performance, which also reduces 2023F losses attributed to minority shareholders. We believe that the following factors will contribute to strong earnings growth for VPB in 2024-2025: (1) a rebound in top-line growth, (2) a decrease in credit costs after a high base in 2023, and (3) a gradual improvement in contributions from FEC.

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