- 9M 2023 results: Net sales amounted to VND44.8tn (USD1.8bn; -0.3% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND6.5tn (USD267mn; -1% YoY), fulfilling 71% and 70% of our respective full-year forecasts and falling behind our expectations. As such, we foresee potential downside risk to our forecasts, pending a more extensive review.

- According to Nielsen IQ, Vietnam’s FMCG value increased 3% YoY in 9M 2023 but decreased 2% YoY in Q3. Similarly, Vietnam’s milk-based products value slid 0.5% YoY in 9M 2023, slowing down from the growth of 2% YoY in 5M 2023. In Q3 2023, Vietnam’s milk-based products value dropped 4% YoY in Q3.

- VNM’s domestic dairy revenue ex-MCM (Moc Chau Milk – VNM’s indirect subsidiary) inched up 4% QoQ but decreased 4% YoY (based on our estimate from VNM’s parent financial statements) in Q3 2023. VNM’s domestic market share as of end-September 2023 increased by nearly 200 bps compared to January, according to management.

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