- 2024-07-30T00:00:00
- Company Research
- H1 2024: Net sales increased 6% YoY to VND30.8tn and NPAT-MI grew 20% YoY to VND4.9tn, completing 48% and 51% of our respective full-year forecasts. NPAT-MI tracked ahead of our expectation.
- Q2 2024: Net sales increased 10% YoY and NPAT-MI rose 21% YoY due to foreign businesses’ strong top-line growth and GPM expansion. Vietnam’s FMCG value growth turned positive at +2% YoY, however, the value of Vietnam’s milk-based products declined 2% YoY in Q2 2024, per Nielsen.
- Domestic sales: In Q2 2024, VNM’s parent domestic sales (excluding MCM – VNM’s indirect subsidiary) increased 4% YoY, which outperformed the trend of Vietnam’s dairy sector value reported by Nielsen, as above. Growth was mainly driven by a double-digit expansion in (1) drinking yogurt, (2) condensed milk, and (3) plant-based milk, along with VNM’s gradual recovery of the infant formula category. Growth was backed by continuous product launches (for condensed milk and plant-based milk), a new packaging launch (drinking yogurt), and marketing activities in Q2 and H1 2024.
- Regarding MCM, its sales also increased 2% YoY in Q2, after declining 15% YoY in Q1. In H1 2024, MCM’s sales declined 6% YoY.
- Overseas market: Combined sales from overseas subsidiaries — including Driftwood (US) and Angkor Milk (Cambodia) — grew 22% YoY in Q2 2024. Export revenue jumped 37% YoY in Q2 2024.
- Profitability: GPM improved 2.0 ppts YoY in Q2 due to strong expansion of GPM in foreign business. Specifically, export’s GPM surged 9.2 ppts YoY, and Driftwood and Angkor’s GPM jumped 6.3 ppts YoY in Q2. Operating margin improved 1.7 ppts YoY in Q2, which was partly offset by a 30-bps YoY increase in SG&A/sales to finance active marketing activities during the quarter.
- Our view: VNM’s H1 2024 results are ahead of our forecasts in terms of bottom line due to better-than-expected foreign businesses. We see upside potential to our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.
VNM’s Q2 and H1 2024 results
VND bn | Q2 2023 | Q2 2024 | YoY | H1 2023 | H1 2024 | YoY | 2024F | H1 2024 as % of 2024F |
Net revenue | 15,195 | 16,656 | 10% | 29,113 | 30,768 | 6% | 63,468 | 48% |
| 12,789 | 13,532 | 6% | 24,280 | 25,029 | 3% | 52,946 | 47% |
| 1,270 | 1,740 | 37% | 2,495 | 3,037 | 22% | 5,431 | 56% |
| 1,136 | 1,384 | 22% | 2,339 | 2,702 | 16% | 5,091 | 53% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross profit | 6,150 | 7,068 | 15% | 11,548 | 12,980 | 12% | 26,604 | 49% |
| 5,280 | 5,657 | 7% | 9,805 | 10,505 | 7% | 22,465 | 47% |
| 676 | 1,088 | 61% | 1,315 | 1,852 | 41% | 3,089 | 60% |
| 194 | 323 | 67% | 428 | 623 | 46% | 1,050 | 59% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SG&A expenses | -3,630 | -4,031 | 11% | -6,961 | -7,522 | 8% | -15,669 | 48% |
EBIT | 2,520 | 3,037 | 21% | 4,587 | 5,458 | 19% | 10,935 | 50% |
Net financial income | 268 | 286 | 7% | 529 | 570 | 8% | 1,158 | 49% |
NPAT-MI | 2,199 | 2,670 | 21% | 4,056 | 4,865 | 20% | 9,556 | 51% |
Gross margin | 40.5% | 42.4% |
| 39.7% | 42.2% | 2.5% | 41.9% |
|
| 41.3% | 41.8% |
| 40.4% | 42.0% |
| 42.4% |
|
| 53.3% | 62.5% |
| 52.7% | 61.0% |
| 56.9% |
|
| 17.0% | 23.4% |
| 18.3% | 23.1% |
| 20.6% |
|
SG&A/net sales | 23.9% | 24.2% |
| 23.9% | 24.4% |
| 24.7% |
|
EBIT margin | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| 15.8% | 17.7% |
| 17.2% |
|
NPAT-MI margin | 14.5% | 16.0% |
| 13.9% | 15.8% |
| 15.1% |
|
Source: VNM, Vietcap
Powered by Froala Editor