- We maintain our target price (TP) of VND76,500/share for VNM and upgrade our rating to BUY. 

- Although we remain cautious on the company’s long-term low growth prospects, we believe the recent share price correction has sent VNM’s valuation to an attractive level with respective 2024F/25F PEs of 16.2x/15.0x, approximately two standard deviations below its 10Y median TTM P/E of 22.1x, coupled with a solid dividend yield of 5.8% (according to VNM’s AGM guidance for a FY 2024 cash dividend of VND3,850/share).

- Our TP is positively impacted by rolling our TP horizon to mid-2025 vs YE 2024 previously, which is offset by a 1% cut in our aggregate 2024F-28F NPAT-MI with respective changes in 2024/25/26/27/28F of +4%/+1%/-1%/-4%/-4%.

- We hold VNM's superior profitability and solid dividend payments in high regard. We forecast a 2024F-28F sales CAGR of 5.3% for VNM, driven by the rising disposable income of Vietnamese as the labor market recovers. Additionally, we forecast an EPS CAGR of 6.5% in 2024F-28F.

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