- 2024-01-31T00:00:00
- Company Research
- VJC announced its 2023 results with net revenue of VND62.5tn (USD2.5bn; +56% YoY). Regarding the NPAT-MI, VJC turned the net loss of VND2.3tn (USD92mn) in 2022 into a net profit of VND343bn (USD14mn) in 2023. The strong rebound is broadly in-line with our expectations as 2023’s revenue and NPAT-MI fulfilled 107% and 94% of our respective full-year forecasts. However, we see downside risk to our 2024 forecast as VJC’s 2023 gross profit and operating profit trailed our expectations.
- In Q4 2023, net revenue was VND18.8tn (USD764.3mn; 49% YoY & 32% QoQ). NPAT-MI was VND126bn (USD5.1mn; -6.5% QoQ), vs a loss of VND2.4tn (USD99.5mn) in Q4 2022.
- VJC’s passenger transportation revenue skyrocketed by 96% YoY in Q4 2023, mainly driven by the resumption of the international segment. On a QoQ basis, sales surged by 32%, largely thanks to VND5.4tn (USD219.8mn) of sales and lease back (SALB) recognized in Q4 2023 (~30% of Q4 revenue), vs no transaction in Q3 2023. That offset the 6% QoQ decline in transportation sales (~70% of Q4 revenue).
- In 2023, the transportation revenue of VJC increased by 71% YoY on the back of 23% higher number of carried passenger (reaching 25.3mn passengers), a 15% increase in number of flights (reaching 133,000 flights), and a 73% surge in cargo volume (reaching 81,500 tonnes).
- GPM declined by 926 bps QoQ in Q4 2023 to -0.5%, mainly due to QoQ decline in transportation GPM which we attribute to rising fuel prices and softened domestic transportation demand in Q4. VJC’s operating profit margin declined by 1,065 bps QoQ to -7.6%, with total SG&A expenses surging by 65% QoQ in Q4 2023 which was mainly contributed to by VND460bn (USD18.7mn) of other administration expenses, an abnormally high number.
- NPAT margin only slipped by 28 bps QoQ vs the 1,065 bps drop in EBIT margin, mainly contributed by (1) net other financial income of VND1.5tn (USD59.2mn) and (2) net other income of VND444bn (USD18.1mn).
- The airline’s cash burn eased in 2023 vs 2022 with cashflow from operations (CFO) of -VND1.2tn (-USD48.8mn) in 2023, vs -VND2.4tn (-USD97.6mn) in 2022.
VJC’s Q4 and 2023 results
VND bn | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | 2023/ Vietcap’s 2023F |
Revenue | 12,607 | 18,797 | 49.1% | 40,142 | 62,535 | 55.8% | 107.1% |
Transportation | 6,714 | 13,392 | 99.5% | 30,171 | 51,503 | 70.7% | 103.9% |
Aircraft transactions | 5,893 | 5,405 | -8.3% | 9,971 | 11,032 | 10.6% | 124.8% |
Gross Profit | -3,670 | -102 | N.M. | -1,993 | 2,917 | N.M. | 74.3% |
Selling expenses | -429 | -766 | 78.6% | -936 | -2,218 | 136.9% | 101.7% |
G&A expenses | -191 | -552 | 189.0% | -535 | -1,129 | 111.3% | 150.9% |
Operating Profit | -4,289 | -1,420 | N.M. | -3,464 | -430 | -87.6% | N.M. |
Financial income | 1,828 | 2,718 | 48.6% | 2,246 | 3,731 | 66.1% | 293.0% |
Financial expenses | -1,103 | -1,464 | 32.8% | -2,483 | -3,051 | 22.9% | 169.3% |
Net other income | 607 | 444 | -26.9% | 1,052 | 473 | -55.1% | 1,211.5% |
PBT | -2,957 | 277 | N.M. | -2,649 | 722 | N.M. | 142.0% |
NPAT-MI | -2,447 | 126 | N.M. | -2,263 | 343 | N.M. | 94.2% |
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Margins |
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GPM % | -29.1% | -0.5% |
| -5.0% | 4.7% |
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OPM % | -34.0% | -7.6% |
| -8.6% | -0.7% |
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NPAT margin % | -19.4% | 0.7% |
| -5.6% | 0.5% |
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Source: VJC, Vietcap
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