Q1 2024 earnings recap

Residential developers (VHM, KDH, NLG, and DXG) reported low Q1 2024 earnings results due to lower property handovers/bulk sales recognition (mainly due to the timing of sales recognition at specific projects) and/or lower EBIT margins. In contrast, real estate brokerage firm DXS reported a strong YoY/QoQ improvement in its brokerage segment in Q1 2024. Please see more details in our Q1 2024 Earnings Flashes for each company.

Key changes in forecasts

2024/25F presales forecasts: We broadly maintain our 2024/25F presales forecasts for VHM and KDH. We lower our 2024F presales forecasts for NLG and DXG but keep our 2025F presales forecasts unchanged. (Details in Figure 4)

2024/25F earnings forecasts: We maintain our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast for VHM, while revising down our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast. We lower our 2024/25F NPAT-MI forecasts for KDH, NLG, DXG, and DXS (see details in Figure 3). We continue to expect earnings growth in 2024/25F vs the low bases in 2023 for KDH, NLG, DXG, and DXS, while we project a YoY decline in 2024F NPAT-MI for VHM due to our lower projected bulk sales recognition vs 2023.

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