Vietnam Macro Flash Note - Exports show clearer recovery signals
  • 2023-10-24T00:00:00
  • Macroeconomics

- Exports and imports showed clearer recovery signals. In September, exports rose 2.1% YoY to US30.7bn – the first YoY growth since March 2023, while imports inched up 0.3% YoY to 28.5bn in September- the first YoY growth since October 2022. Also, in Q3 2023, imports showed a faster recovery than exports as imports posted a decline of 5.8% YoY in Q3 2023 vs a strong drop of 19.9% YoY in Q2 2023, while exports fell 2.4% YoY in Q3 2022 vs a contraction of 11.1% YoY in Q2 2023. (Figure 1).

- Agriculture and PCs & electronics led export recovery. Amongst key export categories, exports of food and agriculture products (accounting for 9.1% of total exports YTD) jumped 15.7% YoY to USD8.2bn in Q3 (vs +4.2% YoY in Q2 & -6.7% YoY in Q1). In addition, exports of PCs & electronics (~17.8% of total exports) reached USD17.9bn in Q3 2023 – the highest Q3 figure ever recorded – a surge of 12.7% YoY (vs -6.0% YoY in Q2 2023 & -9.2% YoY in Q1 2023) thanks to a recovery in demand from China (~ 27.1% of total PC & electronic exports; +25.6% YoY in Q3 2023 vs +19.3% YoY in Q2 2023 & -21.2% YoY in Q1 2023). Also, contraction in the exports of phones & parts (~15.0% of total exports) waned as it declined only 5.6% YoY to USD14.6bn in Q3 2023 (vs -24.6% YoY in Q2 2023 & -12.2% YoY in Q1 2023). However, exports of textiles & footwear (~17.4% of total exports) remained weak, falling 14.1% YoY to USD16.0bn in Q3 2023 (vs -15.3% in Q2 2023 & -19.3% YoY in Q1 2023) (Figure 2 – 9).

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