Aggregate H1 2023 NPAT-MI for our coverage universe declined 10% YoY and achieved 49% of our full-year 2023F forecast. H1 2023 NPAT-MI for our HSX-listed coverage declined 6% YoY and also achieved 49% of our full-year 2023F forecast. Our analysts will update their numbers over the next few weeks. However, H1 2023 earnings in aggregate are broadly on track vs our FY 2023 forecasts, and risks to our 2023F forecasts appear evenly balanced. 

Outlook. While weakness in Vietnam’s export sector and associated headwinds for the labor market and consumption look likely to continue at least through Q3 2023, we are encouraged by the extent of policy support in H1 2023 from increased public investment, substantial policy rate cuts and regulatory developments that should be supportive for the real estate and corporate bond markets. We believe we are now close to the end of the earnings downgrade cycle that began in early 2022, and we maintain our VN-Index targets at 1,250 for 2023 and 1,450 for 2024. However, with the VN-Index within a few percent of our end-2023 target, we believe the market may now be due for a consolidation phase before clearer evidence of economic recovery emerges later in H2 2023.

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