Aggregate 2022 NPAT-MI for our coverage universe grew 13% YoY and achieved 97% of our full-year 2022F aggregate forecast. Excluding stocks listed on HNX and UPCoM, aggregate 2022 NPAT-MI for our HSX-listed coverage grew 8% YoY - also achieving 97% of our full-year 2022F aggregate forecast. Our analysts will update their forecasts for stocks under our coverage over the next few weeks. At this point, we maintain our VN-Index target for 2023 at 1,300 and our provisional target for 2024 at 1,500. 

Leaders and laggards in 2022 

The largest absolute contributions by sector to the YoY growth in aggregate 2022 NPAT-MI for our coverage were from financials and oil & gas, followed by industrials & diversified and transportation (based on VCSC sector classifications as shown in Figures 1 & 2). Three of these sectors also showed the highest percentage YoY growth rates, with NPAT-MI from oil & gas up 72%, industrials & diversified up 42% and financials up 34%. While transportation delivered a positive absolute change in NPAT-MI of VND6.4tn, the sector recorded another net loss for in 2022 as airlines HVN and VJC reported net losses. The laggard sector by far, both in terms of absolute and percentage change (-80%), was materials due to sharply lower NPAT-MI YoY at sector giant HPG and net losses at galvanized steel producers HSG and NKG (based on FY2022 data for HSG for the financial year to September 2022). The consumer (-9%) and real estate (-1%) sectors also reported declines in NPAT-MI YoY. Key underlying drivers of relative earnings performance by sector throughout 2022 included the reopening of the domestic economy and international borders after the COVID-19 pandemic and substantial changes in average key commodity prices on a YoY basis (higher oil prices, lower steel prices). In H2 2022, the negative impact of higher interest rates following the two 100-bp policy rate hikes from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) in September and October and increased volatility in the VND/USD exchange rate negatively impacted corporate earnings, in particular for companies with high financial leverage and/or unhedged USD borrowings.

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