Our aggregate NPAT-MI forecasts for the 81 stocks under our coverage have come down by 7.8% for 2021F and 1.5% for 2022F following the recent Q2 results and since we published our Mid-Year Strategy Update on July 8 (our 2023F is almost unchanged). The aggregate cuts for stocks under our coverage that are listed on HSX are 6.8% and 1.0% for 2021F and 2022F, respectively. The main reason is the dramatic escalation in the ‘fourth wave’ of COVID-19 in Vietnam and the substantial restrictions on activity that have been imposed in Q3 2021 to limit the spread of the virus. While the cut to our 2021F aggregate forecast is material, we maintain our VN-Index targets of 1,450 for end-2021 and 1,600 for end-2022 as the cut to our 2022F aggregate forecast is marginal. We believe the market should already be looking beyond 2021 and that share prices will be determined largely by expectations for earnings in 2022F and beyond.

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