- We downgrade our rating for VIC from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM and trim our target price (TP) by 3.6% to VND47,800/share. Our lower TP is mainly due to our lower estimated RNAV for VHM and higher projection for VinFast’s EBITDA loss in 2024F.

- For 2024F, we forecast VIC’s PBT of VND14.0tn (USD559mn; +1.4% YoY), mainly driven by strong property sales and divestment gain. We expect 2024F improvement in homebuyer confidence and overall consumer spending to support VIC’s real estate arms, VHM and Vinpearl. We forecast VIC’s 2024F NPAT-MI at VND2.7tn (USD108mn; +25% YoY).

- We increase our 2024/25/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 13%/8%/14%, respectively, as we factor in the gain from VIC’s divestment in SDI Trading Development and Investment Company Limited (SDI has a 41.5% effective interest in VRE and rights to minority economic benefits in VIC/VHM’s real estate projects Vu Yen and Green Ha Long; details of the divestment plan here) and expect new grants from the Chairman in 2025-26F.

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