- We reiterate our BUY rating for VIC but cut our target price (TP) by 20% to VND89,400/share, which is mainly due to our lower valuations for the property and retail leasing segments as we apply a 15% discount to our estimated RNAV for VHM and more conservative projections for VRE’s new mall launches in 2024-2027F. We remain bullish on Vingroup’s strong exposure to Vietnam’s rising affluent class via its real estate arms Vinhomes (VHM), Vincom Retail (VRE) and Vinpearl.

- Our 2022F forecast for combined EBIT and financial income is nearly unchanged at VND30tn (USD1.2bn) as a higher-than-expected EBIT loss for the industrial segment is offset by higher financial income from VHM’s bulk sales transactions and VIC’s divestment gains in 9M 2022. We forecast 2022F NPAT-MI of VND10.9tn (USD441mn) — see Figure 2. 

- For 2023F, we forecast strong property sales recognition and a recovery of the retail leasing segment to more than offset EBIT losses of the industrial and hospitality segments. We forecast 2023F EBIT of VND12.06tn (USD486mn) vs an EBIT loss of VND7.7tn (USD310mn) in 2022F.

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