•    We downgrade our rating for VHM to MARKET PERFORM from OUTPERFORM, while lowering our target price (TP) by 4% to VND42,300/share mainly due to (1) our removal of four projects in Hanoi from our valuation, which is partly offset by (2) our faster presales projection at Royal Island and Wonder Park, (3) adding four recently-acquired projects under VHM’s legal title, and (4) rolling our TP forward to end-2025 from mid-2025. 

•    We trim our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 7% mainly due to lower property recognition for Ocean Park 2 in Q4 2024F, and cut our 2025/26F forecasts by -13%/-1% mainly due to our removal of contributions from the Co Loa project (following VEF’s plan to transfer this project to a potential buyer; see Appendix 3), although these adjustments are partially offset by an increased property recognition projection for Royal Island.

•    For 2024F, we forecast NPAT-MI of VND27.5tn (USD1.1bn; -18% YoY) as we expect the ongoing retail and bulk sales recognitions at Ocean Park 3 and Royal Island to drive Q4 2024F earnings.

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