• We attended VHM’s annual general meeting (AGM) on April 24. 
• Shareholders approved management’s 2024G guidance for net revenue of VND120tn (USD4.8bn; +16% YoY) and NPAT of VND35tn (USD1.4bn; +4% YoY), fulfilling 99% and 119% of our respective forecasts. VHM’s NPAT results in 2021/22/23 were equivalent to 111%/97%/112% of their respective guidance set at the beginning of each year. We attribute the higher-than-expected guidance mainly to our more conservative projection for bulk sales recognition in 2024 as there is limited disclosed information on the bulk presales pipeline and/or bulk sale recognition timeline.
• Distribution plan for 2023 retained earnings: Shareholders approved for the cumulative undistributed earnings as of end-2023 (after retaining VND5bn to the reserve fund as specified in the charter of the company) to be used to invest in the company’s business operations.

Management guides for 2024G contracted sales value to grow YoY to VND90tn-110tn (USD3.6bn-4.4bn) vs VHM’s 2023 result of VND87tn (USD3.5bn; -32% YoY) and our 2024F forecast of VND75tn (USD3.0bn; -14% vs a high base of bulk sales in 2023). We attribute the higher-than-expected guidance mainly to our more conservative projection for bulk sales in 2024. Key projects to support the 2024G contracted sales value guidance include launched projects (such as Ocean Park 2 & 3, and Golden Avenue), new project Vinhomes Royal Island, and 1-2 upcoming new projects. 

New project Vinhomes Royal Island has received positive absorption. On March 15, VHM held an introduction event for the new project Vinhomes Royal Island (formerly known as the Vu Yen project, Hai Phong Province, total size of 877 ha). Per management, this project has received ~2,000 non-refundable bookings as of end-Q1 2024. This performance reaffirms our projection for this project to contribute 21% into our 2024F contracted sales value forecast for VHM.

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