- We reiterate our BUY rating for VHM but trim our target price by 3% to VND80,400. Our lower target price is mainly due to a higher net debt balance at end-2022 and our 10% lower aggregate presales assumption for 2023-2024. We continue to believe that VHM is well positioned to ride Vietnam’s residential property growth story over the long run thanks to its market-leading position, large land bank and unique mixed-use developments. 

- We forecast 2023F NPAT-MI of VND33.0tn (USD1.4bn; +15% YoY), which is primarily driven by deliveries at The Empire and The Crown. This is 4% lower than our previous forecast mainly due to our higher projection for SG&A and financial expenses.

- We forecast 2023F total contracted sales value of VND78.0tn (USD3.3bn; -39% YoY), which is purely coming from the presales of VHM’s five current mega projects and excludes construction services contract value. This contracted sales value forecast is 5% lower than our previous projection mainly due to our assumption for slower presales at The Crown. We expect VHM to resume new project launches in 2024, which supports our 2024F contracted sales value growth assumption of 4% vs 2023.

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