- We reiterate our BUY rating for VHM but cut our target price by 22.5% to VND82,900/share mainly due to our 0.9-ppt higher WACC assumption, applying a 15% discount to our estimated RNAV and our 8% lower aggregated presales assumption for 2023-2024. We continue to believe that VHM is well positioned to ride Vietnam’s residential property growth story over the long run thanks to its market-leading position, large land bank and unique mixed-use developments. 

- We forecast 2022F NPAT-MI of VND30.8tn (USD1.2bn; -21% vs 2021’s high-base), which is mainly attributable to retail sales and bulk sales at The Empire, The Crown and Grand Park. We decrease our 2022F NPAT-MI forecast by 3% as we lower our revenue recognition projections for Ocean Park and Smart City, which is partly offset by bulk sales recognized as financial income in 9M 2022. We forecast 2023F NPAT-MI of VND34.3tn (USD1.4bn; +11% vs 2022F), which is primarily driven by deliveries at The Empire and The Crown.

- We raise our 2022F presales forecast (excluding construction services contract value) by 12% to VND101tn (USD4.1bn; +28% YoY) as 9M 2022 presales beat our previous expectation. We forecast 2023F presales to decline 19% vs 2022F to VND82tn (USD3.3bn) with contributions from VHM’s five current mega projects. In addition, we expect presales at Wonder Park (~133 ha) and Co Loa (~385 ha), which are both in Hanoi, to launch in 2024F.

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