- We reiterate our BUY rating for VHM and increase our target price by 5.8% to VND84,100/share. Our higher target price is mainly because we factor in two new projects — Sky Park (1.1 ha in Bac Giang) and Duong Kinh Kien Thuy (240.6 ha in Hai Phong) — and lowering our RNAV discount from 15% to 10%. 

- We forecast 2023F NPAT-MI of VND29.9tn (USD1.3bn; +4% YoY), which is primarily driven by scheduled deliveries at Vinhomes Ocean Park 2 & 3 in H2 2023. This is 2% lower than our previous forecast due to (i) our lower handover mix from Grand Park and Ocean Park 1, which has a higher gross margin vs Ocean Park 2 deliveries under business cooperation contracts (BCC), and (ii) our higher other expense forecast, which are partially offset by (iii) our increased financial income projection.

- We increase our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 2% mainly due to our changing the handover recognition timing for the Grand Park and Ocean Park 1 projects. We maintain our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast broadly unchanged.

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