• VEA announced its Q1 2024 results, including revenue of VND899bn (USD36mn; -11% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND1.4tn (USD57mn; +5% YoY), fulfilling 22% and 21% of our respective full-year forecasts and broadly aligning with our expectations. We see no material risk to our current projection, pending a more comprehensive review. 
• In Q1 2024, profit from associates grew 5% YoY while non-operating income (primarily interest income) was flat YoY, resulting in a 5% YoY growth in PBT. In Q1 2024, VEA’s net cash accounted for 58% of its total assets.
• In Q1 2024, Honda Vietnam’s profit (82% of VEA’s Q1 2024 NPAT-MI) jumped 16% YoY and Ford’s profit was flat YoY, despite respective 7%/6%/38% YoY declines in Honda’s 2W/Honda’s 4W/Ford’s 4W retail sales volume. We mainly attribute this to improvements in the selling prices for both brands due to upgraded and new product contributions to the sales mix. In contrast, Toyota Vietnam’s profit dropped 97% YoY, driven by a 62% YoY plunge in sales volume.
• Regarding car sell-out performance, Q1 2024 passenger car retail sales dropped 51% YoY, completing 10% of our 2024F industry passenger car sales forecast and trailing our expectation. Among the key auto producers, Honda posted the most resilient performance in Q1 2024 due to sales of its key models City (CKD, Sedan B) and HR-V (CBU, SUV). Meanwhile, Honda Vietnam’s motorbike sales volume completed 21% of our 2024F forecast and was broadly in line with our expectation. We believe the continuous drop in Q1 2024 for both passenger car and motorbike sales were a signal for cautious consumer spending amid economic headwinds.

VEA’s Q1 2024 results

Source: VEA, Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers' Association (VAMA), Vietnam Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers (VAMM), Vietcap’s estimates

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