- We cut our target price (TP) for VCB by 3.2% to VND105,000/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM.

- Our lower TP is mainly due to a 5.9% aggregate decrease in our 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (with respective changes of -8.1%/-9.4%/-7.1%/-4.5%/-3.0% in 2024/25/26/27/28). In addition, we lower our assumption for target P/B from 3.3x to 3.2x. 

- We cut our forecast for 2024F NPAT-MI by 8.1% to VND37.9tn (+14.6% YoY) because of (1) a 19-bp downward revision in NIM and (2) a 15.2% decrease in NFI (including gains from FX trading). These are partly offset by a 23.0% decrease in provision expenses.

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