- We raise our target price (TP) for VCB by 3.7% to VND108,500/share and upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY.

- Our higher TP is mainly due to (1) the positive impact from rolling TP horizon forward to end-2024 and (2) a decrease in our assumption for VCB’s cost of equity due to an updated beta. These are partly offset by a 9.8% aggregate decrease in our 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (with respective changes of -8.0%/-9.4%/-5.0%/-21.3%/-3.5% in 2023/24/25/26/27). We maintain our target P/B at 3.30x post-private placement.

- We cut our 2023F PBT and NPAT-MI both by 8.0% to VND43.1tn (+15.4% YoY) and VND34.5tn (+15.3% YoY), respectively. VCB reduced its PBT growth guidance from 15% to 10% YoY at its recent analyst meeting. We have observed that VCB has a track record of beating its earnings guidance by ~15% in the past three years.

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