- We raise our target price (TP) for VCB by 4.8% to VND110,000/share and upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY.

- Our higher TP is due to the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2025, which outweighs a 2% aggregate decrease in our 2024 – 2028F NPAT – MI (with respective changes of -3.5%/0.5%/-5.6%/-2.8%/ 7.7% in 2024/25/26/27/28F). Meanwhile, we keep our target P/B of 3.2 unchanged vs our previous update. 

- We cut our forecast for 2024F NPAT-MI by 3.5% to VND36.5tn (+10.6% YoY) because of (1) a 1.1% decrease of NII following our lower credit growth forecast, (2) a 1.3% decrease in NFI (including gains from FX trading), and (3) a 12.8% increase in provision expenses.

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