TPB released robust H1 2022 results with TOI of VND8.2tn (USD356mn; +31.4% YoY) and bottom-line net profit of VND3tn (USD131.8mn; +26.0% YoY), achieving 50.8% and 44.4% of our FY 2022 forecasts, respectively. The increase in NPAT was mainly driven by (1) a 22.5% YoY increase in NII, (2) 71.6% YoY growth in pure NFI, (3) 34.4% YoY increase in income from FX trading and (4) net other income increasing to VND337bn vs VND41bn in H1 2021 — of which VND310bn was recovery from bad debt. These factors were partly offset by OPEX and provision expenses, which increased by 35.0% YoY and 39.6% YoY in H1 2022, respectively. H1 2022 provision expenses accounted for 67.8% of our full-year forecast. Furthermore, Q2 2022 NPAT was VND1.7tn (+33.3% QoQ). We see no material change to our forecasts, pending a more extensive review.

NII rose 22.7% YoY in H1 2022 despite lower NIM. NIM in H1 2022 was 4.23% (-39 bps YoY), which was derived from a 67-bp YoY decline in the IEA yield that outweighed a 29-bp YoY decrease in COF. CASA was 18.1% (-31 bps YoY and -65 bps QoQ) — the lowest since Q2 2020. Simple LDR decreased 5.9 ppts YoY to 55.2%. Moreover, deposit growth of 12.02% YoY vs loan growth of only 6.98% YoY resulted in lower simple LDR. 

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