- We lower our target price (TP) for TPB by 8.8% to VND19,600/share, but maintain our OUTPERFORM rating as the bank’s share price decreased 12.8% over the past three months. 

- We cut aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT forecast by 12.3% (-17.2%/-13.5%/-7.6%/-14.3%/-10.5% for 2023/24/25/26/27F, respectively), which outweighs the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end 2024F. Our lower aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT is mainly due to (1) lowering 2023-2027F credit growth CAGR from 14.6% to 14.1% and (2) cutting aggregate forecasted other income by 39.3% on lower assumed bad debt recoveries during 2023-2024F.  These factors outweigh a 6.6% aggregate decrease in forecast provision expenses. 

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